The administration of Donald Trump claims it is “on the verge of a major breakthrough” in achieving peace between Ukraine and Russia. However, emerging details point to extensive behind-the-scenes maneuvering in which Kyiv is not involved — while the Kremlin appears to be gaining significant influence over the content of the proposed deal.
According to Axios, the U.S. and Russia held a series of undisclosed consultations discussing a new plan to end the war. Both American and Russian officials confirmed the talks to journalists.
Russian side claims a 28-point plan was agreed with the U.S. — without Ukraine
Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev, who traveled to Miami in late October after new U.S. sanctions were imposed, told reporters he spent three days there in negotiations with Trump’s chief representative Steve Witkoff and other members of the Trump team.
According to Dmitriev, they jointly drafted a 28-point document inspired by Trump’s Middle East peace-making approach.
The key elements he cited include:
- relying on principles Trump and Putin allegedly “agreed upon” during their meeting in Alaska in August;
- a proposal to “resolve the Ukrainian conflict”;
- restoring U.S.–Russia relations;
- addressing “Russia’s security concerns”;
- introducing “new approaches” to European security.
Moscow is reportedly satisfied with the plan, as it reflects the Kremlin’s positions — while Ukraine and European partners were not involved in drafting it.
Key issues remain unaddressed
It is unclear how the document proposes resolving fundamental questions such as:
- the status of the occupied territories;
- whether Ukrainian forces would be required to withdraw from non-occupied parts of four regions;
- the return of deported children and civilians;
- prisoner exchanges;
- security guarantees following any “peace” arrangement.
According to Politico, optimism in the White House is high, and the administration intends to present the plan to President Zelensky as a “fait accompli.” U.S. officials interviewed by journalists suggest that due to the frontline situation and domestic scandals, Zelensky may be pressured into accepting it.
One senior official said:
“What we present to Ukraine is reasonable.”
Another added that Europe’s reaction “doesn’t concern us” — the priority is “getting Ukraine on board.”
Dmitriev also claims the U.S. is already explaining the plan’s “advantages” to European partners and Kyiv.
Manipulation or a real negotiation track?
The Axios report relies heavily on Dmitriev’s statements — raising the possibility that it may be part of a Russian information operation. Meanwhile, Witkoff is no longer a central figure in the process: Senators Marco Rubio and J.D. Vance are increasingly taking the lead.
After speaking with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Secretary of State Rubio said Russia presented nothing constructive and only maximalist demands — and he cancelled preparations for a planned meeting in Budapest.
Ukraine steps up its own diplomacy
President Zelensky is launching an alternative diplomatic track:
- traveling to Turkey for talks with President Erdoğan;
- preparing for a meeting in Kyiv with U.S. Army leadership.
On Thursday, Zelensky will meet U.S. Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll and Army Chief of Staff Randy George. This visit by the Pentagon’s top military officials signals the seriousness of the issues under discussion.
Analysts believe it is highly unlikely that Ukraine will accept Russian terms, which Kyiv has repeatedly labeled unacceptable. However, pressure on Kyiv is clearly increasing.
